Past 7 days was a tough 1 for the bulls. In reality, it was the worst 7 days for the S&P 500 (SPY) so far in 2023… as each individual financial information web site stated again and once again. So this is clearly the start of the subsequent leg lower… the major capitulation every person has been waiting for… correct? Go through on to uncover out why I disagree with that.
(Please delight in this up to date variation of my weekly commentary at first posted February 27th, 2023 from the POWR Growth newsletter).
It’s been two weeks considering that our previous commentary verify in, and a whole lot has transpired in the meantime.
Right before I get into why I disagree with the idea that this is the commence of the upcoming leg lower, let us revisit some of the important situations.
In excess of the earlier two weeks, we have now had a few major reviews all displaying hotter-than-envisioned inflation.
Both CPI and PPI described climbing thirty day period-over-month price ranges, as properly as once-a-year rate raises that were being bigger than economists experienced envisioned.
Then, very last 7 days, the Fed minutes from the February conference had been introduced. And a third inflation indicator (and the Fed’s favourite) – the personalized use expenditures (PCE) index – also arrived in hotter than any person was anticipating.
And extra Fed officials publicly voiced their considerations that inflation continues to be way too substantial.
All of this is undesirable news for the bulls. And yet…
The bulls are however hanging on. Irrespective of selling in the course of the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to continue to be higher than its 200-day going average (MA), which is a pretty critical complex amount.
The marketplace also closed increased on Monday, which shown some remarkable optimism in the encounter of a lot of “worst week of 2023” headlines.
Earlier now, I read someone phone it a “teflon” sector, and I think she’s accurate. Regardless of the bears’ very best endeavours, none of these negatives looks to be sticking.
Every single time the sector picks by itself again up pursuing however a different bearish surprise, I go a minor little bit even further away from the bear camp and a small nearer to the bulls.
I however would not take into account myself a bull — or even a “reluctant” bull (my new preferred phrase) — but I’m undoubtedly not a bear. I consider I’m primarily a trend follower, and I’m not combating this craze.
Conclusion
I’m guaranteed bears are pulling their hair out suitable now. What else demands to transpire ahead of the bulls ultimately give up?
I do not know the response to that. But what I do know is that the bears are finding steadily bearish once again. And as soon as all the sellers have left the sector, the only path left to go… is up.
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Meredith Margrave
Main Progress Strategist, StockNews
Editor, POWR Development E-newsletter
SPY shares have been unchanged in soon after-several hours buying and selling Tuesday. Yr-to-day, SPY has received 3.62%, compared to a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index through the identical interval.
About the Author: Meredith Margrave
Meredith Margrave has been a noted fiscal skilled and current market commentator for the earlier two decades. She is presently the Editor of the POWR Growth and POWR Shares Under $10 newsletters. Master far more about Meredith’s qualifications, alongside with inbound links to her most modern content.
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The publish Careful Optimism Regardless of Hotter Inflation… appeared very first on StockNews.com