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AC Milan vs Inter prediction, odds and betting tips


May 10, 2023
AC Milan vs Inter prediction, odds and betting tips


The Italian rivals are ready to do battle with a place in the final of this season’s Champions League up for grabs.

AC Milan vs Inter odds

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AC Milan vs Inter predictions

UEFA’s decision in 2021 to abolish the away goals rule from its competitions was contentious. To this writer, at least, it was a mistake. However, even the rule’s proponents are glad it will not be in use on Wednesday. 

Twenty years ago, AC Milan faced Inter in the semi-finals of the Champions League. 

The first leg at San Siro was drawn 0-0. The second, at the same stadium, finished 1-1. Milan advanced on away goals, as they were nominally the visitors in the latter encounter. Thankfully, a repeat this year is impossible.

That is not to say the scores will not be level after 210 minutes, just as they were in the 2002/03 campaign (which ended with Milan crowned European champions).

The Serie A table shows that these sides are evenly matched. Inter are fourth with 63 points. Milan are fifth with 61.

In truth, both Milanese outfits have underwhelmed domestically. No one saw Napoli’s title triumph coming. Given how dominant they have been, it is unrealistic to expect they could have been pushed closer by Milan or Inter.

Yet both sets of supporters would have anticipated their teams qualifying for the Champions League rather comfortably. As things stand, a top-four finish is by no means certain for either.

Still, a run to the semi-finals of said continental competition makes up for any Serie A shortcomings. This great footballing city will supply a Champions League finalist for the first time since 2010. But who will it be?

AC Milan vs Inter betting tips. 18+ BeGambleAware.org Please play responsibly.


AC Milan vs Inter betting tips. 18+ BeGambleAware.org Please play responsibly.

AC Milan vs Inter betting tips

The Serie A standings show there is little to choose between these two teams, but we reckon Inter have the edge.

Inter to win – 6/4 (bet365)

Had Inter been eliminated from the Champions League earlier in the campaign, Simone Inzaghi may well be out of a job right now.

A five-match winless streak in Serie A between mid-March and mid-April led to strong criticism of the manager, who was probably saved by Inter’s victories over Porto and Benfica in Europe.

The Nerazzurri finished second in the Italian top tier last term, missing out on the title to Milan by two points. 

In that sense they have gone backwards this season. Inter may yet finish as runners-up – they are just a point behind Lazio in second – but at this stage of 2021/22 they had nine more points to their name.

However, Inzaghi deserves great credit for leading Inter to the last four of the Champions League for the first time since 2010, when they won a historic treble under a manager in Jose Mourinho who was at the peak of his powers.

Simply getting out of a group containing Bayern Munich and Barcelona was an achievement. Inter then ground out a 1-0 aggregate win against Porto, before turning on the style to beat a widely admired Benfica side in the quarters.

Inter have a deserved reputation for being a team for the big occasion. They have won two Milan derbies in 2023, triumphing 3-0 in the Supercoppa and 1-0 in Serie A. 

On Wednesday, we fancy their chances of making it three wins out of three since the turn of the year.

Under 2.5 goals – 8/13 (bet365)

The first leg of this semi-final will be a fantastic occasion. The atmosphere at San Siro will be superb, and the importance of the contest will be made clear by the players’ determination to come out on top.

We should not necessarily expect a high-scoring affair, however. The stakes could hardly be higher and both Milan and Inter will be preoccupied with avoiding costly errors, particularly in the early stages.

Indeed, the first half could constitute little more than the two teams feeling each other out.

With a second leg still to come, there is plenty of time to win the tie. At this stage, Inzaghi and Stefano Pioli will be more concerned about losing it.

It is also worth bearing in mind the unique dynamics of a Derby della Madonnina in the last four of the Champions League.

Milan are officially the home team for the first leg, but that will not be clear when watching the match. 

Ordinarily the hosts would feel incentivised to make the most of the game on familiar soil, but that factor does not apply here. As a result, this could be a cagey match.

Lautaro Martinez to score any time – 21/10 (bet365)

There will be no shortage of attacking talent on the field on Wednesday night.

Inter will likely start with Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko up front, with Romelu Lukaku ready to enter the fray as a substitute.

Milan’s frontline will feature the thrilling Rafael Leao and the evergreen Olivier Giroud, who is still going strong at 36. The 41-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic, incidentally, is not in the Rossoneri’s Champions League squad.

Martinez looks like the wisest choice in the anytime goalscorer market.

The Argentine was rested for the 2-0 victory over Roma on Saturday, although he did come off the bench in the second half.

Before that, Martinez notched back-to-back braces against Lazio and Verona, while he scored the winner against Milan in the derby in February.

How to watch AC Milan vs Inter

  • Location: San Siro, Milan, Italy.
  • Date and time: Wednesday 10 May, 8pm.
  • How to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on Twitter @GregLeaFootball

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