Manchester City or Real Madrid will book their place in the Champions League semi-final on Wednesday night.
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Manchester City vs Real Madrid predictions
As weekends go, this past one was pretty much perfect for Manchester City.
A potentially tricky trip to Goodison Park was negotiated with little fuss, as an Ilkay Gundogan double and Erling Haaland header gave Pep Guardiola’s side a 3-0 victory.
Later on Sunday afternoon, Arsenal slumped to a home defeat by Brighton by the same scoreline. Those two results have left City on the brink of claiming their fifth Premier League title in six years.
One more win will do for the reigning champions, who host Chelsea on Sunday. If Arsenal fail to beat Nottingham Forest a day earlier, the prize will be theirs already.
That is good news for City’s bid for a maiden Champions League crown. Had they dropped points at Goodison and seen Arsenal beat Brighton, the situation would be very different.
As it is, Guardiola can afford to dedicate his full attention to Wednesday’s semi-final second leg, safe in the knowledge that the title is all but wrapped up.
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The treble remains a possibility for City, who are the favourites to win each of the Premier League, the Champions League and the FA Cup.
This is their biggest remaining test, though. A 1-1 draw at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu last week was a better result for City than Madrid, but the tie remains in the balance.
City have underachieved in Europe throughout Guardiola’s tenure, which has otherwise been hugely successful. The time has come for them to seize the moment.
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Manchester City vs Real Madrid betting tips
Real Madrid can never be written off in the Champions League, but home advantage gives Manchester City the edge.
Manchester City to win – 3/5 (bet365)
A draw was a fair result at the Bernabeu last week. Two fantastic goals from Vinicius Junior and Kevin De Bruyne lit up an intriguing game between two evenly matched sides.
If Manchester City and Real Madrid were in the same domestic league, the former would almost certainly amass more points.
The Blancos have been rather disappointing in La Liga this term. They proved unable to sustain a title challenge and could yet finish third, below Atletico Madrid as well as the champions Barcelona.
This represents the continuation of a recent pattern. Madrid have finished top of La Liga in just four of the last 15 seasons. Over the same period they have won five Champions Leagues.
The Spanish giants are the kings of continental football, both historically and in the modern era.
City have the opposite record: dominant domestically but continually unable to get over the line in Europe.
This might finally be their year, though. City are well positioned to reach the final after that 1-1 draw last time out.
Madrid can never be written off, of course. This is a team which does not know when it is beaten.
But City are formidable at the Etihad Stadium, where they have beaten the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Tottenham Hotspur this term.
With home advantage to call upon, we are backing Guardiola’s men to get the job done.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 20/21 (bet365)
The first leg was an absorbing encounter with plenty of excellent approach play, but neither team was able to create an abundance of clear-cut chances.
The return fixture could be different. There are no second chances after Wednesday night, so if a team is trailing they will need to take greater risks to get back into the tie. That in turn would lead to a more open match.
City will also aim for a faster start at the Etihad Stadium than Madrid at the Bernabeu, with last week’s hosts happy to keep things tight in the opening stages.
Witness the game in Manchester between these two teams last season. City were 2-0 up inside 11 minutes, but Madrid fought back through Karim Benzema and Vinicius. In the end Guardiola’s side won 4-3.
Another seven-goal thriller is unlikely, but there is reason to believe there will be at least three goals here.
Meanwhile it is difficult to envisage either team keeping a clean sheet. There will be so much attacking talent on display that both defences will have their hands full throughout.
Vinicius Junior to score any time – 10/3 (bet365)
Because City are the favourites to win the second leg, their players are most fancied to find the back of the net.
All things considered, a price of 10/3 on Vinicius scoring against City again looks like excellent value.
The Brazilian has notched in two of his three previous appearances against Guardiola’s side, including in that crazy game at the Etihad 12 months ago.
He is Madrid’s top scorer in the Champions League with seven goals. Only Haaland and Mohamed Salah have been more prolific in this season’s competition.
Madrid will have to play on the counter-attack for large parts of this encounter, so the speed and direct running of Vinicius will be vital.
The 22-year-old’s end product has come on leaps and bounds over the last couple of years. Vinicius can make his mark again on Wednesday.
How to watch Manchester City vs Real Madrid
- Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England.
- Date and time: Wednesday 17 May, 8pm.
- How to watch: BT Sport 1.
About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
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